People keep saying markets usually rise in the year before a US election. Maybe because governments want the economy looking strong, or maybe investors just like the pattern.
But if everyone already knows the pattern, is it still useful?
Anyone here actually investing based on election cycles, or just watching from the side?
#Investing#Markets#ElectionCycle
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With Trump treating the stock market like a scoreboard again, I’m not sure the old election-cycle pattern means much. One tariff announcement or Iran headline can change the mood overnight. Feels more like betting on his next move than following a cycle.
Interesting how election years make everyone more confident and more nervous at the same time. I’m watching, but trying not to make portfolio decisions just because the headlines are louder.
I’ve heard this is a real pattern too, though of course the data is limited because there are only so many election cycles to look at. I wouldn’t treat it like a rule, but it is interesting as one extra piece of market context. The tricky part is knowing how much of it is actually the election cycle and how much is just everything else happening at the same time.